Monday 26 July 2021

What's the probability that God would create?

The prior probability that God would freely create a universe external to Himself must be some value that lies on the interval [0,1]. 
Assigning a prior probability of 0 is unacceptable for a theist. That would mean the existence of a universe external to God completely disconfirms theism.
Any value that lies within (0,1) seems like it's going to be arbitrary. Why would the value be 0.371 rather than 0.372? Some values like 0.5 or 1/e seem less arbitrary, but there's still going to be some arbitrariness, especially since we have no explanation for why the prior probability would take on such a value.
A prior probability of 1 would be surprising, since God is completely self-sufficient and has no need of a universe external to Himself. Perhaps, though, God's love gives Him very strong reasons to create beings to be in relationship with Him. This wouldn't be the fulfillment of a need, but a gift. Another point worth noting is that, even if the prior probability of God creating an external universe is 1, it may still be the case that it is possible for God to refrain from creating an external universe.

1 comment:

  1. I wouldn't find it surprising at all if the probability of God creating is 1 AND it's not possible for God to refrain from creating. One could argue that our decisions make us who we are (and more so for a decision as important as creating a universe!), so a "God" in another possible world who chose not to create wouldn't be exactly the same being. But God is necessary, so that cannot be. Of course, this leads to the conclusion that necessary beings cannot have free will (which I find really intuitive, but you may not)

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